For Position Only: Got Your Provisions?

CreativePro Staff

If you’re like me, you lost track of dot-com closures and cancelled IPOs back in June, and the preannouncements of lower-than-expected tech earnings began to blur sometime in November. The flood of this negative news, coupled with reports of power-supply shortages and the painfully prolonged presidential election, is enough to make any level-headed worker bee cash out on her stock options (were they still worth anything) and look for a job in insurance. Still, though it’s inarguably been a crazy year in terms of technology and the economy, I say there’s no more exciting time to be a publisher. And I’m not talking only about the not-so-good kind of excitement.

A Matter of Course
Given the surreal rate of growth in high-tech and the Internet in the past couple of years, we all knew it was only a matter of time before the bubble burst. And while this may send Wall Street into a tizzy, all it really means is that the Internet is no longer a novelty; it’s a way of life. We’ve watched Net usage and Net technology grow and mature for the past five years to the point where the Internet is an accepted — dare I say "institutional"? — form of communication, entertainment, and commerce in much of the world. Sure, there are some nay-sayers who argue that the Internet is just a fad, but the reality is that the digital divide is narrowing and users are becoming increasingly sophisticated. Take, for example, the fact that 35 million Web users — at home, no less — are accessing streaming content, a 65-percent increase from 21 million during the same month last year, according to Nielsen-NetRatings.

The better news is that the Web hasn’t replaced paper as a medium for publishing. Indeed, according to the PaperCom alliance, paper usage is growing both in the United States and internationally. According to the alliance, which recently examined paper consumption in 93 countries, there was an increase in usage in 1999 for all types of paper, including office paper, newsprint, envelopes, and promotional print materials such as direct mail, catalogs, and magazines. Heck, even Stephen King has realized that online publishing can’t replace print publishing, having put his online serial "The Plant" on hold.

The unfortunate recent layoffs of thousands of people from marchFIRST, Agency.com, Organic, Razorfish, and some other big Web-design firms provides more evidence of the trend: Successful publishing ventures in the future will have to encompass all forms of output, not focus just on an Internet presence (or any other single medium, for that matter).

While many non-technology businesses have known this all along, many dot-coms are just beginning to figure it out. Just look at Amazon.com’s Christmas ad blitz, which includes catalogs and spots in TV and print publications. The venerable online retailer finally realized that it can leverage other forms of media to fuel online sales and success. And other online publishers are striving to bridge the Web and print as well. How Stuff Works, for example, just announced the first in a series of "offline" publications — a print magazine about science and technology for middle-school teachers and students to support its online content and teaching guide.

Spreading the News
So what are the implications of all this? Even though advertising spending is indeed coming down and the economy is in belt-tightening mode, the opportunities out there for designers and publishers are pretty exciting from where I sit. Several industry trackers have in recent weeks reported that 2001, while it won’t be as fantabulous as 2000, will still be a good year. For instance, an economist at the National Association for Printing Leadership recently predicted that commercial print sales will grow 5 to 6 percent in 2001, while Simba Information reported that the North American professional publishing industry will grow from $13.6 billion in 2000 (a 5.2-percent increase from 1999) to $16.2 billion in 2003. Simba projected that books will be the largest media segment by revenue, reaching a projected $4.98 billion in 2000, compared to online and Internet services of $2.6 billion.

And with all that growth in business, so too will come evolution in technology. Digital-rights management, XML, PDF — all are frontiers waiting to be crossed. I don’t know about you, but I’m ready to saddle up and go.

Read more by Anita Dennis.